Nifty Market Report – 3rd July 2025: Weekly Expiry Turns Into a Roller Coaster

The weekly expiry for Nifty on 3rd July 2025 lived up to its volatile expectations. While the index opened with a strong gap-up and aggressive buying, the day turned out to be a choppy ride with wild intraday swings, giving both buyers and sellers a tough time.

Opening Action: Gap-Up & Delta Divergence

Nifty opened with a gap-up of 51 points, driven by overnight strength in S&P Futures and Asian markets.
The first 5-minute candle came with a strong positive delta of +1467 and a delta % of 35.67%, indicating aggressive buying right from the start.
However, the index was rejected from yesterday’s Market Profile POC, leading to a price decline even while delta remained positive — a classic delta divergence.
➤ Interpretation: Buyers were aggressive in placing orders, but the market moved down, meaning buyers were absorbed by strong sellers.
Battle Between Buyers and Sellers

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Around 9:30 to 10:15 AM, cumulative delta stayed positive and hovered above +1000 — suggesting that buyers were still in control, placing large orders.
Price climbed back up and even retested yesterday’s high, but signs of buying exhaustion became evident. The rally fizzled as buyer strength was absorbed again, and price began to retrace.
Mid-Day Breakdown: Buyers Trapped, Sellers Take Over

From 10:15 AM to 1:15 PM, the index steadily moved downward, retracing all gains and coming back to its opening level.
A sharp reversal candle appeared around 1:20 PM, backed by aggressive buying that pushed the index briefly above the rejection zone.
➤ This trapped intraday call buyers, as the move was short-lived.
From there, the index resumed its downward journey, attempting to break below yesterday’s low.
Expiry Day Straddle: A Seller’s Headache

Market Profile & Volume Clues

POC (Point of Control) for Nifty Futures formed around 25,600, with a POC count of 10 — suggesting that price was accepted here.
This level can now be treated as a reference zone for support/resistance in the coming sessions.
Global Cues & Macro Picture

Globally, markets remained cautious due to:
Ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions and potential tariff policy announcements
Awaiting clarity on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due Friday
Crude prices saw minor corrections, while the Dollar Index stayed strong, keeping emerging markets nervous
VIX hovered around 12.5 — still low, but option premiums fluctuated due to intraday spikes

Market Profile & Volume Clues

• POC (Point of Control) for Nifty Futures formed around 25,600, with a POC count of 10 — suggesting that price was accepted here.
• This level can now be treated as a reference zone for support/resistance in the coming sessions.

Global Cues & Macro Picture

• Globally, markets remained cautious due to:
  • Ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions and potential tariff policy announcements
  • Awaiting clarity on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due Friday
  • Crude prices saw minor corrections, while the Dollar Index stayed strong, keeping emerging markets nervous
• VIX hovered around 12.5 — still low, but option premiums fluctuated due to intraday spikes

What to Expect Tomorrow (4 July 2025)

Let the chart speak — not the news.”
Key possibilities:

Scenario What it Means
If Nifty breaks below 25,400 with volume Trending move towards 25,250 is possible
If Nifty opens inside 25,400–25,600 range Expect sideways to choppy day
If breakout above 25,650 happens Momentum buyers may step in, targeting 25,800
Volatility Spike + Global News Could flip direction — stay adaptive, not predictive
If you’re a trader: React, don’t predict. Stick to charts. Price action and volume will always tell you what the big players are doing.

Final Thoughts

Today’s market was a perfect reminder of how delta, order flow, and absorption work in real time. There were:

• Trapped buyers
• Fake breakouts
• High-speed reversals
• Option sellers adjusting rapidly to premium swings

This was not a trending day. It was a trader’s battlefield, where only those who adapted quickly — using tools like Market Profile, Delta, and Option Greeks — could survive.

Pro Tip for Traders:
Keep 25,600 on watch as a control level. It’s today’s POC and may serve as a key area for rejections or acceptance tomorrow.