Market Overview

Nifty 50 closed firmly higher on Monday, advancing by 127 points
(0.49%) to 25,095. This positive sentiment was echoed by the S&P BSE
Sensex, both benchmarks rebounding after two consecutive sessions of
losses. Gains were driven mainly by robust corporate earnings and
ongoing optimism about India’s trade outlook, despite uncertainty due
to potential US tariffs.

Opening: The index opened with a 30-point gap-up at 24,999.

Session Range: Intraday high at 25,111.40 and low at 24,882.30.

VIX Drop: Volatility Index (VIX) fell 2.66%, indicating reduced market anxiety.

Banks Lead Gains, Corporate Earnings in Focus

HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank surged over 2% following strong June quarter
earnings, leading the rally in financials.

Reliance Industries slipped 3.2% despite positive earnings, with
analysts cautious about its oil-to-chemicals and retail outlook amid
talk of new US tariffs on energy exports.

UltraTech Cement traded higher ahead of earnings, boosting sentiment
in sector peers.

Early Movement & Intraday Dynamics

Weak Start: The market began with a negative delta of -1,059 and a
negative delta percentage of 24.25%. Nifty fell quickly by 142.65
points within the first 15 minutes, breaking key supports.

Buyer Emergence: At 9:30AM, signs of seller exhaustion appeared as
buyers entered strongly, pushing the index up by 190 points.

Delta Divergence at 10:10AM: Despite a red candle, positive delta
indicated renewed selling. This was a signal to shift from call buying
to call selling.

Volatile Pattern: Another bout of aggressive buying at 2PM sent the
index higher by over 100 points, capping a day full of sharp
reversals.

Sideways Zone and Key Candle Analysis

At 10:15AM, the market moved sideways.

Crucial 9:45AM Candle: On the 5-min chart, the 9:45AM candle (high:
24,998.20; low: 24,930.95) saw the largest orders. The high provided
persistent support through the session. Resistance formed at the
previous day’s volume point of control (POC), setting a tight range
between 25,080 and 25,200.

Open Interest & Options Data

Consolidation Signals: High call open interest at 25,200, significant
put interest at 25,000.

Put-Call Ratio: 0.86, highlighting market caution.

Max Pain: At 25,100, suggesting most options buyers would encounter
losses near this level.

Strategy Caution: With VIX low and short straddle/strangle potentially
attractive, traders should beware of rapid volatility spikes that can
endanger theta-based positions.

Trading Strategies & Buyer Performance

Short Straddle’s Rollercoaster: Traders holding short straddles at
25,000 initially faced volatility, but profited as Nifty settled.

Active Buyers: Astute traders capitalizing on both calls and puts at
timely moments found profitable opportunities.

Premium Watch: Put premiums remained cheaper than calls throughout the day.

Key Trading Levels:

Support: 25,000

Resistance: 25,200

Value Area: 25,000–25,050

For trend confirmation, the index needs a breakdown below 24,900 or a
breakout above 25,100. Until then, range-bound option strategies are
favored.

Sectoral Highlights

Cement: Biggest gainer, led by UltraTech Cement.

Pharma: Lagged behind, partially offsetting upside.

General: Market breadth remained positive overall.

Global News Impact

Energy Watch: Aramco announced the expansion of its LNG operations.

US-China Tensions: China’s rare earth magnet exports to the US surged
in June, highlighting ongoing trade shifts.

Commodities: Natural gas prices dropped 4.88%, affecting global energy
sentiment.

Bonus Pro Trading Insight

If Nifty trades within the high (24,998.20) and low (24,930.95) of the
9:45AM 5-min candle, expect sideways action. Watch for a sustained
move above this candle unless negative global news emerges. This is
often where the largest orders manifest, providing a key reference
zone for intraday traders.

Risk Notice

I am not a SEBI-registered advisor. This analysis is for educational
purposes only. Trading and investing in securities markets involve
risk. Consult your financial advisor before making investment
decisions. I do not promote or endorse any broker, course, or product.