Nifty 18 July Market Analysis – Downward Trend Continues

Indian equity markets extended losses for the third consecutive week,
reflecting a cautious sentiment among traders. The BSE Sensex fell by
501 points, and the Nifty 50 dropped 143 points (-0.57%), closing at
24,968. The weakness was primarily driven by banking, financial
services, realty, and tech sectors. Traders remained on edge due to
continued global uncertainty and upcoming US trade deal deadlines set
for August 1.

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My Personal Trade Insight

I was holding some positional trades for the 24th July expiry.
However, due to strong directional movement (trending market), I
decided to hedge my position immediately. Simultaneously, I executed a
long straddle at 25150 strike price, buying:

25150 Call at 115.85

25150 Put at 138.90

Within 2 hours, the long straddle turned profitable, and I exited the
position. Now, I will focus on managing my open positional trades next
week.

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Flashback: My Yesterday’s Blog Prediction

In my previous analysis, I highlighted the importance of the 10:15 AM
candle on 15th July (1-hour timeframe). I mentioned that if the market
breaks the high or low of this candle, we may witness a trending move.

Exactly as predicted, the market broke the low and fell sharply—a
bearish scenario for short straddles or sellers. The first 2 hours
today favored buyers, followed by a sideways movement in the final
session.

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Chapter 1: Opening Zone

Nifty opened slightly lower at 25,108

Intraday high: 25,144

Intraday low: 24,918

Close (LTP): 24,968

Net decline: -143 points (-0.57%)

India VIX was volatile today—first rising and then calming
down—creating uncertainty for intraday traders.

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Chapter 2: Early Market Movement & Delta Analysis

The market started on a bearish note with a negative delta of 7.54%
and significant negative order imbalance.

This confirmed that sellers were in control, breaking below key
support levels. By 11 AM, the market found temporary support near the
buying imbalance zone from 23rd June around the 25,000 mark.

At 10:15 AM, aggressive sellers entered, creating a high negative
delta, indicating strong selling imbalance. The cumulative delta
remained negative throughout the session.

Unless the market crosses this 10:15 AM level, we can’t expect bullish reversal.

Key Observation: Nifty is now stuck around 25,000—this is a key
support-resistance zone. If Monday’s price action remains within this
zone, sideways consolidation is expected.

Pro Tip (Bonus Insight):

Check the 1-hour candle at 10:15 AM on 18 July:

High: 25,013.30

Low: 24,925.25

If the market stays within this range, it indicates consolidation.
This candle saw the largest volume orders—marking it as a reference
zone for upcoming price action.

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Chapter 3: Options Data & Max Pain Analysis

Highest Call OI: 25,200

Highest Put OI: 24,900

Put Call Ratio (PCR): 0.85 (Bearish)

India VIX: Increased by 1.33%

Max Pain: 25,050

Max Pain is the price point where option buyers (call and put) lose
the most, and sellers gain the most. It is critical during expiry
weeks.

Implication: Market is currently favoring put buyers, call writers,
and traders executing long straddles.

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Chapter 4: Key Levels to Watch

Upside breakout level: 25,200

Downside breakdown level: 24,900

If the market stays within this range, short straddle and short
strangle strategies will benefit due to theta decay.

Watch Global Cues: GIFT Nifty, US Inflation Data, EU Tariff Updates to
gauge Monday’s direction.

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Chapter 5: Sectoral Performance

Top Gainers: Metals

Top Losers: Banking, Financial Services, Realty, and Tech

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Chapter 6: Global Market Highlights

US PPI data due tonight; inflation pressure could impact global markets.

PBOC & Bank of America executives discuss macro-economic trends.

US consumer strength supports global shares. Yen weakens ahead of Japan vote.

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Final Thoughts & Caution

The market remains highly sensitive to global cues and trade tensions.
Intraday traders must:

Monitor GIFT Nifty pre-market levels

Watch India VIX closely before deploying short volatility strategies

Avoid aggressive short straddles when VIX is low but volatile

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Disclaimer:

I am not a SEBI-registered advisor. This blog is for educational
purposes only. Markets are risky. Please consult a qualified financial
advisor before making any investment decisions. I am not affiliated
with any broker or product platform. All screenshots or P&L images
shared are for transparency and educational insight only.