Chapter 1: Opening Zone

Nifty opened flat at 25,196, reached a high of 25,255, a low of
25,121, and closed at 25,212. The session was highly choppy, offering
little directional clarity.

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Chapter 2: Early Movement and Market Behavior

Nifty began the day on a weak note with a negative delta of 1126 and
delta negative % of 28.48%, along with a clear negative imbalance.
This led to initial selling pressure. However, the index respected the
previous day’s (14 July) volume POC, indicating that prior buyers were
active at those levels.

For the next hour, the market entered a tug of war phase with no clear
direction. At 10:45 AM, a small buying attempt occurred with 23.38%
positive delta, helping Nifty cross the previous day’s POC. However,
it faced immediate resistance again at yesterday’s volume POC, leading
to a pullback.

Interestingly, even when prices moved up, the cumulative delta stayed
negative, which indicated a lack of strong buyer commitment. The
market kept moving up and down, creating confusion for directional
traders.

Theta decay was effective, especially for option sellers, as VIX also
declined during the session. In the last 30 minutes, Nifty fell by
around 40 points but managed to close nearly flat.

Range for the day remains between 25,250 and 25,100, and a breakout
from this zone is required for a directional trend to emerge.

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 Bonus Technical Insight

Check the hourly candle on the Nifty chart from 15 July (10:15 AM):

High: 25,454.20

Low: 25,100.80

As long as Nifty trades inside this range, the market is considered
sideways. A breakout from either level will provide a strong trending
move.

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Chapter 3: Open Interest & Option Sentiment

Bearish sentiment continues in the options chain.( green is call oi
and red is put oi )

Call OI highest at 25,200, showing strong resistance.

Put OI highest at 25,000, indicating support.

Put Call Ratio (PCR) is at 0.85, still favoring call writers.

India VIX fell by 2%, which favors short option strategies.

Max Pain is at 25,200, aligning closely with the closing price.

 Max Pain: The strike where option buyers lose the most, and option
sellers gain the most.

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Chapter 4: Seller’s Advantage & Strategy Outlook

Since 17 July is Nifty expiry, option sellers are expected to dominate
due to theta decay.

Traders who initiated short straddles at 25,200 profited as the market
remained rangebound. For traders expecting directional movement, a
call ratio spread (like 1:2 or 1:4) can be an alternative, especially
when premiums are favorable.

Until the index breaks above 25,250 or below 25,100, range-bound
strategies like short straddle or short strangle are ideal.

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Chapter 5: Sectoral Performance

Gainers: PSU Banks

Losers: Metal sector

The market displayed a mixed sectoral tone with no broad-based trend.

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Chapter 6: Key Global News to Watch

US Producer Prices expected to rise faster MoM, though annual growth
slows. May impact inflation expectations.

Bank Indonesia lowers interest rates as expected, signaling easier
liquidity conditions in Asia.

Brent Crude prices rise after a two-day drop — could influence Indian
oil-import stocks.

Japan’s manufacturing sentiment improves in July, suggesting a
possible revival in Asian demand.

 Strategic Insight for Traders & Investors:

Watch Gift Nifty, US market futures, and European indices tonight.

Avoid aggressive long positions if volatility rises unexpectedly.

Focus on export-heavy Indian stocks in sectors like IT, pharma, and
auto components.

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 Disclaimer:

This blog is for educational purposes only. I am not a SEBI-registered
advisor. The securities market is subject to risk. Please consult your
certified financial advisor before making any trading or investment
decisions.