A Bearish Day with No Signs of Recovery

Overview

On 10th July 2025, Nifty opened with a gap-up of 35 points at 25,511,
but the initial optimism quickly faded. As the session progressed,
bearish sentiment dominated, with no aggressive buyers stepping in.
Market participants witnessed a one-sided downtrend, validating
earlier support/resistance expectations.

Let’s break down the day in detail.

________________________________

Chapter 1: Opening Zone – A False Start

Gap-up open at 25,511 looked promising in the first minute.

However, the market was instantly rejected from the previous day’s
Market Profile POC.

By the 5-minute candle, delta turned sharply negative at -339, with a
-17.43% delta percentage, indicating strong sell-side pressure.

Soon after, Nifty broke below the 8 July POC, a key bearish trigger.

 Key Confirmation: As mentioned in our 9 July blog, any slip below
25,450 would attract selling — and that played out as expected.

________________________________

Chapter 2: Where Were the Buyers?

Not a single candle showed signs of aggressive buying.

Cumulative delta remained negative throughout.

Price traded below VWAP, POC, and other key levels — a bearish sign.

Call option open interest increased (especially at 25,600 and 25,500
strikes), confirming fresh short build-up.

No significant support zones held, and Nifty broke the previous day’s low.

 This was a classic “no buyers in control” session.

________________________________

 Chapter 3: Key Support & Resistance Levels

Immediate support: 25,250

If breached, expect an extension towards 25,100–25,050.

Resistance remains at:

25,450 (POC of last 2 sessions)

25,600 (strong call writers zone)

Likely Range for the coming session: 25,300 to 25,600, unless a global
trigger breaks the pattern.

________________________________

Chapter 4: Strategy Review – Sellers Dominated

Put buyers had the edge, especially in the morning session.

Short Straddles around 25,350 also worked for experienced traders who
adjusted positions as VIX spiked and cooled later.

Buyers had limited success unless they were quick scalpers.

 Learning: Don’t try to pick bottoms in a strong trend. Follow price
and delta confirmation.

________________________________

 Chapter 5: Sectoral Performance

Top Gainer: Metals (due to copper tariff reactions)

Underperformers: Banking, Realty, Financials

All major indices — Nifty, Sensex, and Bank Nifty — closed negative,
reflecting a broad-market sell-off.

________________________________

 Chapter 6: Global Factors to Watch

The market sentiment was weighed down by international developments:

 Key Global News:

Donald Trump’s 50% copper tariff announcement targeting BRICS-aligned
nations spooked global metals and emerging markets.

US CPI data (due tonight) is expected to influence Fed’s next move.

Crude oil prices fell on weaker demand forecasts.

Gift Nifty was flat to slightly negative in after-market hours,
showing muted overseas interest.

________________________________

 Chapter 7: What to Expect Tomorrow (11 July 2025)

 Important things to watch before market open:

Gift Nifty levels and global market reaction

US CPI data and Dow/Nasdaq overnight movement

Asian markets in early trade (Hang Seng, Nikkei)

India VIX – Any rise can signal volatility or fear

 View:

Nifty is likely to stay between 25,250–25,600, unless triggered by
overnight global news.

A clean break above 25,600 or below 25,250 may lead to a directional move.

________________________________

Final Takeaway

“The absence of buyers and presence of increasing call open interest
painted a clear picture: today was not a market for bulls.”

It was a classic expiry day where sellers, especially put buyers and
short straddle traders, capitalized on a trend-driven move. Volatility
spiked and cooled, providing both entry and exit opportunities — but
only for those tracking cumulative delta, OI data, and market profile
levels.

________________________________