Sideways to Bearish Tone Ahead of Weekly Expiry | Trump’s Copper
Tariff Shakes Metal Sector

 Chapter 1: Opening Zone – Flat Start, Confused Sentiment

The Nifty 50 opened nearly flat, with a minor gap-down of just 7
points, but early signs indicated weakness:

 Opening Delta: -472

 Delta %: -25.74%

This negative delta indicated that aggressive sellers were active in
the first few minutes. However, the index found support at the
previous day’s volume Point of Control (POC) and attempted an upward
recovery.

The bounce-back was short-lived — around 11:30 AM, Nifty was rejected
again from yesterday’s high. Interestingly, the rejection came with a
positive delta, indicating that buyers were trapped, and this led to
the second leg of selling pressure.

 Chapter 2: Support and Resistance – Stuck Between Familiar Levels

Open Interest data continues to show that:

 25600 is acting as a major resistance (highest Call OI)

 25400 is a strong support (highest Put OI)

 25450 is developing as a fair value — observed in both today’s and
yesterday’s POC

 26000 Call OI increased, suggesting traders expect a cap on upward movement

With this setup, it’s clear that Nifty is consolidating between
25400–25600 and may continue doing so until a breakout or a
news-driven move happens.

Chapter 3: Option Strategy – A Seller’s Playground

With the market remaining sideways for most of the session, option
sellers dominated. The setup favored strategies like:

Short Straddle at 25450

Short Strangle between 25400–25600

Why did these work well?

Low India VIX during the day

Stable premiums and strong theta decay

Absence of aggressive buyers

 Around 2:00 PM, the index fell sharply by over 114 points, hitting
new intraday lows and triggering stop-losses for Call buyers. Just
when Put buyers entered, the market showed a small recovery, catching
them off-guard again.

Eventually, the market found balance near 25450, the POC of the last
two sessions, which continues to be a critical reference level.

Chapter 4: Key Observations

 First Half: Cumulative Delta was positive (buyer absorption)

 Second Half: Cumulative Delta turned negative, indicating seller dominance

 Implied Volatility (IV) rose across most strikes

 POC Count > 10 on both days (8 & 9 July), indicating fair price
discovery at 25450

 Summary: Until cumulative delta flips back to positive, buyer
conviction remains missing.

Chapter 5: Sectoral Movement – Mixed Tone

 Top Gainer: Consumer Sector (led by FMCG and Discretionary)

 Top Loser: Metals Sector, sharply impacted by tariff news

Major Indices:

IndexDirection% Change
Nifty 50 Down – 0.18%

Bank Nifty Down – 0.07%

Sensex Down – 0.21%

India VIX Down – 2.13%

Chapter 6: Major Global News – Copper Tariff Shockwaves

 Global Highlight:
Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a steep 50% tariff on
copper imports as a part of new trade protectionist measures against
nations aligned with BRICS.

 Global Impact:

Global copper futures plunged

Indian metal stocks faced immediate pressure

Trade tensions rose sharply, adding uncertainty to global markets

 This news triggered risk-off sentiment in commodity-heavy sectors
and spooked global investors.

Chapter 7: View for 10 July 2025 – Weekly Expiry Ahead

Tomorrow is Nifty weekly expiry, and the current tight range makes
direction hard to predict.

Key levels to monitor:

25450: Market’s fair value and equilibrium zone

25550: Resistance zone for potential upside

25400: Breakdown level – if breached, expect downside to intensify

 What to Watch Before Open:

Gift Nifty trend

U.S. and global market close

Copper tariff developments and BRICS response

Opening price action during the first 1 hour

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 Conclusion – Patience Is a Strategy

Today’s Nifty behavior showcased how range-bound days offer great
opportunities to option sellers but trap directional traders. Until
the market escapes this 25400–25600 band, avoid aggressive trades.

 Tomorrow’s expiry will depend heavily on global cues and early
price behavior. Stay flexible and reactive.

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