Nifty Market Commentary – 24th June 2025

“Global Positivity, Local Volatility – Why Structure Still Wins Over Sentiment”

The global markets opened the week on a positive note following a major geopolitical development. Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, sparking optimism across global indices. Reflecting this sentiment, SGX Nifty surged 190 points around 9:00 AM yesterday, indicating a strong gap-up open for the Indian markets today.

🔍 Pre-Market Expectation vs. Setup

As expected, Nifty Futures opened with a 208-point gap-up, not only above the previous session’s value area but also well above the Point of Control (POC) of 20th June on the Market Profile chart. While the news flow was bullish, as disciplined traders, it’s crucial to wait for price confirmation rather than jumping into trades impulsively.

The first 5-minute candle of today’s session was a clear signal of aggressive buying, with a delta over +2000, establishing a strong imbalance zone right at the open. Open interest was visibly strong at the 25200 strike, which suggested a key resistance level. However, since the market moved nearly 100 points in the first candle, we decided to wait for a clean breakout of the initial 5-minute candle range for directional confirmation.

🧭 Market Profile & Order Flow Observations

Volatility Index (VIX) remained steady near the 13 mark, signaling no panic.

Price action found strong support at 25100, aligning with the 20th June POC.

Despite some attempts to pull the market lower, the cumulative delta stayed green, indicating persistent buying strength.

The rotation factor hit -2, showing downside rotation attempts, but low TPO count indicated poor acceptance of lower prices.

At 9:45 AM, sellers attempted to gain control, but price closed above the candle POC, leading to a renewed buying imbalance.

This was also validated by my personalized strength indicator, which printed a bullish value of 0.35, giving me the signal to enter long positions with 25140 as the key support.

🔄 The Breakout Attempt

As we moved closer to the 10:30 AM mark, Nifty started testing the high of the first 5-minute candle. A successful breakout was expected to trigger a stronger rally, especially since the rotation factor shifted to 0, indicating buyer strength with balanced effort. The initial balance (IB) for the day was approximately 140 points, which typically suggests a range-bound to balanced day.

⚠️ Exit Signals & Market Reversal

Around 11:05 AM, Nifty attempted an upward breakout once again with strong volume and delta, climbing above 25250. However, open interest build-up was insufficient, and I chose to wait for more confirmation.

Soon after, my proprietary indicator flipped bearish, and delta divergence appeared, hinting at exhaustion. The rotation factor staying at 0 further confirmed that the market may now enter a range-bound phase.

By 12:30 PM, the index dropped sharply by 150 points within 15 minutes, testing support at the 10:50 AM candle low, pulling price back within the initial balance range.

📊 Summary

Despite the strong global sentiment and a bullish open, Nifty remained volatile and largely range-bound, respecting the IB limits.